![]() A homer leading off the game is worth more than one in the eighth inning of a 10-1 game but much less than one in the bottom of the ninth of a 1-1 game. The hitter and pitcher each get credit or blame for any change. It takes a team’s chance of winning a game before and after each plate appearance, with each team starting with a 50 percent chance. A different measure of wins based on the context of when events happen. There is also a cousin of FIP, called xFIP, which measures fly balls instead of homers and assumes a pitcher gives up home runs on a league average amount of fly balls. The average FIP is the same as the average ERA, to make for simpler comparisons. Players whose FIP is lower than their ERA are often due for rebound seasons, while those with a higher FIP than ERA might be in for regression. The stat tries to ignore the impact of fielding and luck and is considered a better predictor of future performance than ERA. Tries to measure the aspects of pitching most in control of the pitcher: walks, strikeouts, hit batsmen and home runs.
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